Djncj ESG and Climate Risk Issue Briefs

How does UDA help in Climate Change Risk Assessment? A case for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)

  • July 18, 2024
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Key Highlights The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has warmed by approximately 1.2°C over the past century, leading to significant changes, including expanding the Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IOWP). Warming has caused higher sea levels and shifts in climate dynamics, potentially disrupting critical rainfall patterns for countries like India. Expanding Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs) and declining net primary production (NPP) threaten marine life, leading to shifts in fish populations and potential declines in India’s marine fish catch by 10% to 30% by 2050. Expanding Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs) and declining net primary production (NPP) threaten marine life, leading to shifts in fish populations and potential declines in India’s marine fish catch by 10% to 30% by 2050. India’s blue economy, crucial for GDP and livelihoods, is threatened by coastal flooding, erosion, and infrastructure vulnerability, requiring policy interventions for re-skilling and upskilling. The Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) framework and Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) are essential for addressing ocean governance challenges through enhanced surveillance, monitoring technologies, and adaptive strategies for sustainable resource management and coastal resilience. Introduction Over the years, the ocean’s climate change risk has been increasing alarmingly. The past decade has recorded some of the highest-ever sea surface temperatures (SST) and events like coral bleaching in several ocean regions. Given the accelerating rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is very likely that in the coming years, climate change will significantly disrupt the entire marine ecosystem. This disruption will indirectly affect humanity, threatening livelihoods and reducing the contribution of the blue economy to the world. The Indian Ocean region, experiencing the highest increase in the net ocean heat content (OHC) in the 21st century compared to other oceans, is particularly vulnerable. This ocean caters to approximately 33% of the world’s population despite covering only 20% of the Earth’s water surface. Therefore, there is an urgent need to adopt a framework that addresses the climate change problem in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), considering factors such as the unique features of tropical waters, socio-cultural, economic, and political conditions of the local people, and the impact of climate change on the underwater ecosystem. Despite the formation of various global groups like COP and UNEP and the signing of various agreements by the world leaders to tackle climate change, no impactful on-ground result has been achieved till now. Climate Change Impact: Indian Ocean The Indian Ocean (IO) is experiencing one of the fastest surface warming rates (SST) among the world’s oceans, with a rise of approximately 1.2°C over the past century. The Pacific Ocean has seen an increase of about 0.6°C, while the Atlantic Ocean’s SST has risen by approximately 0.7°C. This comparison highlights the varying impacts of global warming on different ocean basins, with the Indian Ocean showing particularly significant changes. This rapid warming has raised the temperature of the upper water layer of the IO basin above 28°C, leading to a dramatic expansion of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IOWP) over the past two decades, now covering nearly 100% of the northeast and central IO.Additionally, the heat content of the IO has increased abruptly, contributing to more than a quarter of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 meters over the recent decade. Consequently, rising sea levels and melting ice sheets significantly threaten flooding in low-lying coastal regions. “Given India’s high coastal population density, this may lead to loss of livelihood and displacement of people. Furthermore, higher SST influences climate dynamics and likely impacts the ENSO pattern, altering atmospheric circulation. This deviation from the actual pattern will ultimately harm countries like India that rely on this phenomenon for rainfall. Studies indicate that by the end of the 21st century, the IOR may experience permanent marine heat waves, exacerbating these issues.” Impact on the Underwater Ecosystem Disbalance in the Fish Population: A recent review of Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs) revealed that low oxygen concentrations in coastal areas of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal directly threaten marine life and impact nitrogen cycles in these ecosystems. With continued warming, OMZs are expected to expand, further intensifying anoxic conditions in the coastal IO zones. Several studies have noted declining trends in net primary production (NPP) in the IO, primarily due to warming-induced stronger stratification, which reduces nutrient availability. Model simulations project declines in NPP in the tropical IO, indicating up to a 25% reduction in phytoplankton carbon in most IO regions between 1990–1999 and 2090–2099. This will lead to behavioural changes for various fish species, forcing them to migrate to other habitable zones. Recent observations confirm that many tropical marine species remain in temperate waters. Changes in spawning patterns and dietary habits will potentially lead to the overpopulation of some species and a decline in others, disrupting prey-predator relationships and, ultimately, the whole food web. By 2050, studies suggest that India’s marine fish catch could decrease by about 10% to 30% due to climate change risks. These impacts underline the urgent need for sustainable management and adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Proactive measures will be essential to preserving biodiversity and securing livelihoods dependent on these critical resources. Coral Bleaching: A World Economic Forum report indicates that if anthropogenic emissions of GHGs are not kept below the threshold level, it may trigger a climate tipping point, leading to widespread coral bleaching in low-latitude waters by 2040. Coral reefs are crucial for the underwater ecosystem, supporting life for many marine species by providing food and shelter. They also support fisheries, tourism, and recreation, offering global economic benefits. In fact, India’s tourism sector significantly contributes to the economy, especially coastal tourism, which heavily depends on corals. “Increased CO2 levels cause ocean acidification, impairing the ability of corals to produce calcium carbonate, which weakens their skeletons, making them more susceptible to damage and bleaching. Rising temperatures have caused widespread coral bleaching across the IO, compromising habitats for associated marine organisms. The consequences of coral bleaching include loss of biodiversity, ecosystem collapse, and increased risks of erosion

Marine Spatial Planinng (1) Science and Technology

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) Implementation, based on Modelling & Simulation (M&S), driven by the Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) framework

  • July 2, 2024
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Key Highlights The global community, under the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Ocean Commission (IOC), has prioritised the MSP as a critical tool for enhanced water body management. The Modelling and simulation (M&S)–based MSP, followed by field experimental validation, will revolutionize how we manage the challenges and opportunities of the new global order. The developed nations have developed significant expertise and hardware for the MSP initiative and now pushing the global south to align with the new regulations. The developed nations have developed significant expertise and hardware for the MSP initiative and now pushing the global south to align with the new regulations. The universe is going through a very critical phase in its entire evolution. On one end, the Science & Technology (S&T) and human understanding of the universe has reached a level where sustainability crisis and climate change risk are clearly visible. On the other hand, the population growth and the demands for a better life drive us towards an irreversible degradation of the surroundings. Often, the bogey of development and good life is becoming a cause for extreme weather events and massive scale pollution across air, water, and food. Serious efforts are required to manage this catastrophic situation. “Given that 75% (including the freshwater systems) of the earth is water, we need to prioritise the focus on these water bodies. Going further, it may be noted that 90% of the threats and resources reside below the surface, so Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) should be prioritised across the board.” Digital transformation has been recognised as the de-facto tool for effective governance, and the manifestation in the marine or freshwater systems has been referred to as the Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). The global community under the United Nations (UN) Inter-governmental Ocean Commission (IOC) has prioritised the MSP as the critical tool for enhanced management of water bodies. As per the IOC, MSP is defined as the public process of analysing and allocating the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to achieve ecological, economic and social objectives that have been specified through a political process. However, this initiative at the global scale has two fundamental concerns. The first is the North-South divide, and the second is the tropical challenges.  The Global South has been at the receiving end of the power play by the developed world, often referred to as the North. Many of these initiatives come as a surprise for the global south, and they pay a heavy price for coping with the changed global order. The MSP is an intense technological and data-driven initiative. The developed nations have developed significant expertise and hardware for the MSP initiative and now pushing the global south to align with the new regulations. The North gets accused of exploiting the global norms as a means of Return on Investment (RoI) for their proactive technology advancements. “The conventional MSP, being pushed by the developed world, is hardware-intensive and based on extensive sensor deployment across the entire marine space. The prohibitive cost of such hardware intensive MSP is limiting the Global South’s participation, which is facing significant socio-economic and socio-political stress.” The entire global community has recognised the Indo-Pacific strategic space as the theatre for geopolitical and geostrategic interactions. More and more global powers are deploying their strategic assets in the region and indulging in local politics. The Indo-Pacific strategic space, by definition, is the tropical waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropical waters present unique challenges and opportunities. On one end, they boast of rich bio-diversity and massive undersea mineral resources, whereas on the other end, they suffer severe degradation of the sonar performance deployed for any UDA. The degradation of sonar performance is of the order of 60%, compared to the temperate and polar regions, where these systems were originally designed and developed. The local site-specific underwater characteristics in the tropical waters require indigenous efforts to ensure effective UDA. The two fundamental concerns also have a cascading impact. The developed world is facing a serious demographic crisis and lacks the bandwidth to deploy human resources to customise their technologies & know-how to suit the tropical requirements. These tropical countries looking up to the temperate and the polar countries to build their MSP is a flawed idea. The developing nations in the tropical waters are densely populated with aspirational youth looking for meaningful engagement. These young people lack the skill & knowledge to participate in such critical global endeavours. Defining the opportunities and then connecting them to the skill & knowledge gaps will be the key. MSP for the tropical waters of the Indo-Pacific and beyond will require acoustic capacity & capability building in a structured manner. “The Modelling & Simulation (M&S) based MSP, followed by field experimental validation, will be a game changer to manage the challenges and opportunities of the new global order. The UDA modelling based on the available above-water data will provide us with the backbone to generate synthetic data for any variation in underwater space.” The tropical waters’ unique characteristics can be mapped using high-end signal processing algorithms. For example, we can use the varied databases to consider the low-frequency ambient noise (below 1 kHz) MSP mapping. The low-frequency ambient noise is known to be generated by shipping traffic. The following points present the entire process: – The entire space is divided into grids of 10 latitude & longitude. Each grid is treated as a unit of M&S. – The Automated Identification System (AIS) inputs are drawn for each grid to extract the static and dynamic inputs of the ships in the region. Artificial Intelligence (AI) based algorithms are used to clean the corrupted AIS data. – This real-time AIS input is then corroborated with the Classification Society database to derive the machinery details of the specific ships in the grid. – The AIS and the Classification Society data are used to compute the Underwater Radiated Noise (URN) in each grid. The computed URN is then brought to the centre of the